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It will be a Rocky start

nrussellgib

Team,


I’ll actually be heading on a business trip to Japan next week, and I hope to post as much as I can whilst I’m there, including livestreams and Instagram posts. So if you do want to keep up to date on what’s happening then turning on the bell notification and following me on Instagram is probably a good bet too! @ninjamonkeyguy


So, let’s get an overview of what’s happening within the country, it’s expected that there will be little change until case numbers start showing a downward trend. And as Japan continues and is well into the 7th wave of the pandemic, numbers continue high even though a slowdown in cases is expected to start around this time.


[1]Japan confirmed 233,767 new cases Nationwide on Friday. This is actually the third highest record, all happening within the same week. And also, the fourth day of reporting over 200,000 daily cases.


Whilst in Tokyo 37,767 new cases were also reported, 3,601 more than the previous day.


And now that Prefectural governments are able to put in place their own virus mitigating measures, Thirteen of Japan's 47 prefectures have so far done so.


These states of emergency are intended to help ease any straining that local medical facilities might come under. And might include asking elderly members of the community and those who are vulnerable to avoid visiting crowded places and to take additional measures.


Anyway, as always, let’s get into the nitty gritty and check out what’s happening on the vaccine front.


As from August 5th, 63.2% of the population have now received their third dose. And crusially for Japan’s aging population 90.4% of those aged 65 years or older have now received their booster shot too.


In fact 14,248,982,(4th) doses have also been administered and most importantly 31.8% of those aged 65 or over have now received their 4th shot too.


And looking at Tokyo’s hospital occupancy. There are 57.5% of standard covid beds in use. Another increase compared to last week’s update.

And, in terms of severe patients there are 134 in the capital, equalling to 31.9% of the 420 beds set aside for these patients in Tokyo.


Team, I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again. We need to wait for the situation to stabilise and for numbers to start heading down. Something that will hopefully happen in the coming days. In the meantime, we must be patient. Something that I’m sure we have all become very good at!


There are a few hints that tell us that Japan is starting to become more comfortable with the virus. Japan’s death rate continues relatively low and is amongst one of the lowest. The current wave although creating a surge in hospitalisations is starting to be seen as less severe by the Japanese population and the fact that this is the first summer with no real restrictions since 2019, and that strict border controls are keeping the crowds of foreign tourists away has meant that Japanese residents are using this opportunity and heading to tourist hotspots, even though infections continue to surge. Perhaps an indicator, and a positive one for all wanting to enter the country that the Japanese mindset is changing and that just like many other countries around the world people are starting to adjust to living with the virus. And the more accepted this becomes the more likely foreigners entering for tourism will also be accepted by the population as a whole.


Prime Minister Kishida continues to rule out nationwide restriction, and has even recently said that his government is looking at the possibility of downgrading Covid. Something that I mentioned in last week’s update. This would mean patients could also be treated at general clinics, therefore helping reduce the strain on hospitals. It’s clear that all eyes are on the Japanese economy and that declaring a state of emergency would be detrimental on this front.


“If the number of new cases continues to beat records, demand for travel and consumption will likely fall despite the absence of restrictions,” said Takuto Yasuda, an economist at NLI Research Institute, in an interview. “If the government declares a state of emergency, it will have a greater negative impact on the economy.”


After more than two years of this pandemic, many Japanese people are now ready for normal life again. Or at least a ‘new normal’


Team, we always knew that once Japan did reopen her borders to tourism things would not be the same. In some ways Japan’s preparations for the Tokyo Olympics will mean more English signage and foreigner friendly Menus making navigating some areas and in Japan easier. But in other ways many tourism-based industries have suffered, changed or closed down completely. So, if you are a returning traveller make sure you do check if your favourite hotel, restaurant or experience is still around! But don’t worry too much, once Tourism does fully reopen, I will be expecting a boom in the industry, maybe new accommodation choices and experience will pop up as a result.


An article by Nikkei Asia (remember that all links can be found in the video description) states that aroundone in 10 hotels and travel agencies in Japan have closed down during the pandemic.


A survey, jointly conducted by Nikkei and NTT TownPage, covered hotels, and a range of accommodation and found that the number of registered facilities decreased by 5,000 falling to 53,000 compared to 2020.


Notable examples of closures include Hotel Grand Palace in Tokyo which closed down during the pandemic.


Tourism facilities dropped by 16% in Osaka, whilst Tokyo saw a 15% decline.

And according to the U.S research company STR. Japan's average occupancy rate in June was 61.7%, In 2019, thi figure was over 80%..


"Accommodation facilities may fall into a negative spiral where they are unable to make new investments in preparation for travel demand recovery as they are pressed to repay their debts," said Kotaro Toriumi, an aviation and travel analyst.


The Japanese government still hopes to attract 60 million visitors in 2030.

However, with the number of workers in the hotel industry down by 50,000 in April 2022, this might pose a problem.


It’s clear that as Japan starts to accept living alongside Covid, and once case numbers do start to come down an opportunity will arise for Japan to reopen her borders. The question remains, when will this happen? Will we need to wait for the Covid to be reclassified or will things move quicker?


Anyway Team, Stay positive (but covid negative). I might not have all the answers but hopefully you’re a little more informed!

Till next time, Arigatou, gracias, thanks bye!



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